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👇1-14) Trading volumes have fallen sharply to levels last seen before the Trump election, and it may take up to six months to gain clarity on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve announcement. Despite this uncertainty, Bitcoin has remained relatively strong as sophisticated traders have shifted out of altcoins and into BTC, maintaining its dominance above 60%. The recent altcoin (and meme coin) rally quickly faded, confirming the broader market’s rotation into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Funding Rate (LHS) vs. Binance Spot Crypto Volumes (RHS, $ billions)
👇2-14) Institutional players increasingly treat Bitcoin as a macro asset, using it to express market views when traditional financial markets are closed on holidays and weekends. Bitcoin remains one of the most macro-sensitive assets, reacting sharply to shifts in economic expectations.
👇3-14) Last Friday’s decline was driven entirely by a rise in inflation expectations, highlighting this sensitivity. With a hawkish Fed, persistent inflation expectations could create headwinds for Bitcoin’s price in the near term. Understanding macro trends and Trump's next moves is critical for navigating the market.
US 1-year inflation expectations - consumers are worried.